Monday, May 31, 2010
Syariat dan Hakikat
adakah sempurna hakikat itu tnpa syariat..dan bolehkan hakikat berjalan tanpa syariat?..atau lebih sempurna sekiranya syariat dan hakikat berjalan sekali?..
I ll continue to write about this matter in near future..
I ll continue to write about this matter in near future..
Buy and Hold Strategy
this article was taken from dali blogspot...
Dali`s View: Buy and hold does not work in Malaysian market, and thanks to the globalisation effect, buy and hold does not work for global equity markets as well. Markets are now interconnected. If a fund had some big trouble with their Greek stocks, it may create a huge withdrawal of funds from their portfolio. In order to prepare for that, the funds may be forced to sell down other "good holdings". The example is exacerbated if these funds were leveraged. Thus, it may not mean much even if you are holding BAT or IOI Corp if Portugal starts to spiral downwards.
Can you really pick a stock in Malaysia that will do well over the next 5 years? Well, you can o0nly hope, you can't be absolutely sure. But there are guidelines in selecting "safe" or rather safer stocks. One major problem in picking a seemingly good stock is the failure to recognise whether a company "benefits" from certain government policies - that is not "stable" revenue without needing elaboration.
In picking a solid long term stock, it must have size, it must have critical mass, if its size is past critical mass that will equate to higher barriers to entry for any competition. Size will result in cost efficiencies and better bargaining power.
The second factor is to look at how each industry is going to play itself out. Do you think there will be more or less banks in the country? Yes, the country will be opening up more for competition, but just look at the experience of any country that has opened up, its the surviving local banks that will continue to prosper even more.
Another good example is plantation land, will it ever get cheaper? Even if you add on more environmental and green regulations onto the planters, they will still be able to pass on the cost. The way the global warming effect is playing out, weather patterns are more severe and harder to predict and more extreme.
Even when you do a lot more homework, you seriously cannot be doing a buy and hold strategy for 5 to 10 years. You may have been able to do it back in the 60s, 70s or even 80s... but the effects of globalisation and indirectly the prevalence of derivatives have created too much uncertainty. Stocks are just assets that is based on the liquidity in the system. Nowadays, liquidity can be totally withdrawn for a myriad of reasons unrelated to the underlying fundamentals. You cannot say that it does not matter if a stock is $10 today and will be $30 in 5 years, if it fell to $2 sometime between these two dates, does it matter? You can be Buffett in the 60s-80s but not today
Dali`s View: Buy and hold does not work in Malaysian market, and thanks to the globalisation effect, buy and hold does not work for global equity markets as well. Markets are now interconnected. If a fund had some big trouble with their Greek stocks, it may create a huge withdrawal of funds from their portfolio. In order to prepare for that, the funds may be forced to sell down other "good holdings". The example is exacerbated if these funds were leveraged. Thus, it may not mean much even if you are holding BAT or IOI Corp if Portugal starts to spiral downwards.
Can you really pick a stock in Malaysia that will do well over the next 5 years? Well, you can o0nly hope, you can't be absolutely sure. But there are guidelines in selecting "safe" or rather safer stocks. One major problem in picking a seemingly good stock is the failure to recognise whether a company "benefits" from certain government policies - that is not "stable" revenue without needing elaboration.
In picking a solid long term stock, it must have size, it must have critical mass, if its size is past critical mass that will equate to higher barriers to entry for any competition. Size will result in cost efficiencies and better bargaining power.
The second factor is to look at how each industry is going to play itself out. Do you think there will be more or less banks in the country? Yes, the country will be opening up more for competition, but just look at the experience of any country that has opened up, its the surviving local banks that will continue to prosper even more.
Another good example is plantation land, will it ever get cheaper? Even if you add on more environmental and green regulations onto the planters, they will still be able to pass on the cost. The way the global warming effect is playing out, weather patterns are more severe and harder to predict and more extreme.
Even when you do a lot more homework, you seriously cannot be doing a buy and hold strategy for 5 to 10 years. You may have been able to do it back in the 60s, 70s or even 80s... but the effects of globalisation and indirectly the prevalence of derivatives have created too much uncertainty. Stocks are just assets that is based on the liquidity in the system. Nowadays, liquidity can be totally withdrawn for a myriad of reasons unrelated to the underlying fundamentals. You cannot say that it does not matter if a stock is $10 today and will be $30 in 5 years, if it fell to $2 sometime between these two dates, does it matter? You can be Buffett in the 60s-80s but not today
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Current Portfolio
SCOMI
TA ANALYSIS :-
MACD = BELOW "0"
RSI = NOT OVERSOLD YET
ADX= 20 POINT
MY PLAN : SELL WHEN RSI BELOW 30, IF BREAK 0.385 AND TOUCH 0.430
MY LOVELY BABY (KUB)
I LL USE AVERAGE DOWN METHOD FOR THIS ONE COZ THIS MY LOVELY BABE RIGHT NOW..WITH A GOOD FUNDAMENTAL ITS GOD TO KEEP..ITS AN UMNO COUNTER DUDE....
Volatile and waiting to dive
As i seen KLCI now forming a head and shoulder that break current support..so i can predict our market going to plunge further..at this time i ve to get enough bullet n buy when it is cheaper..bout my current portfolio, i ll consider to sell it this monday..with current price i still can have small profit..
bout my foreign trading, i ll use average down method...where i should buy in new low n keep keeping BII stocks..
After learning a lot if TA, im getting confident and try to be more dicipline for the next time..
DJ closed down 100+..so it ll effect our mrket..hopefully no force selling later..coz now ppl ready to sell and reduce their holding..
my frenz said, now ppl use money to bet in world cup n he said better u dont touch market at this time..for me, i look it in different view..i ll buy when it low and at below NTA..this time i ll use TA& FA nicely..
bout my foreign trading, i ll use average down method...where i should buy in new low n keep keeping BII stocks..
After learning a lot if TA, im getting confident and try to be more dicipline for the next time..
DJ closed down 100+..so it ll effect our mrket..hopefully no force selling later..coz now ppl ready to sell and reduce their holding..
my frenz said, now ppl use money to bet in world cup n he said better u dont touch market at this time..for me, i look it in different view..i ll buy when it low and at below NTA..this time i ll use TA& FA nicely..
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
My New Portfolio
MY LATEST PORTFOLIO 25/5/2010
SCOMI: 0.395 X 5000
KUB: O.440 X 5000
BANK OF INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA: 310RP X 20,000
SCOMI: 0.395 X 5000
KUB: O.440 X 5000
BANK OF INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA: 310RP X 20,000
Monday, May 24, 2010
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Stock to Buy
In this current situation, i seen an oppurtunity to buy..Most of my fav stocks already at my entry price..Here are they :-
KUB 0.450 (UMNO LC)
SCOMI 0.40 (O&G)
RUBEREX 1.00 (RUBER)
KINSTEL 0.830 (STEEL)
EFFICENT 0.180 (DATA MNGMNT)
A&M 0.580 (PROPERTY)
HOPEFULLLY THIS MONDAY I LL CATCH THEM WITH MY TARGET BUYING PRICE
KUB 0.450 (UMNO LC)
SCOMI 0.40 (O&G)
RUBEREX 1.00 (RUBER)
KINSTEL 0.830 (STEEL)
EFFICENT 0.180 (DATA MNGMNT)
A&M 0.580 (PROPERTY)
HOPEFULLLY THIS MONDAY I LL CATCH THEM WITH MY TARGET BUYING PRICE
Saturday, May 8, 2010
PIGS Crisis
Stock market rite now being hurted by PIGS crisis..is this crisis ll be more worsen then Subprime or Lehman Bro?...technical prob occured to DJ just few days ago also a hint to a new economy depress..but if we go back to world eco fundamental its still strong..If we refer to a history data, most of stock market ll take a breathe in May and during world cup season..last friday (7 May 10), KLCI trading lower -10 points, but its recover and closed at +1pt..what a defensive market here..our gov try to proof that our market is good around the region..most of big fund here not selling, only panic trader and contra player did it..
Diagram of PIGS crisis:-
After i studying some of sector, i found that property sector are undervalued..one of the gems here is A&M..
Fundamental Analysis :-
A&M
Current price -
0.62
NTA = 1.25
DY = -
PE = 16.2
A lot of insider buying this stock back,,but last friday one of the their shareholder disposed it..
Technical Analysis
MACD below 0
RSI = above 30%
ADX = near weak trend
So i ll wait till it show a uptrend first otherwise i start accumulate...need a good plan to enter...
Diagram of PIGS crisis:-
After i studying some of sector, i found that property sector are undervalued..one of the gems here is A&M..
Fundamental Analysis :-
A&M
Current price -
0.62
NTA = 1.25
DY = -
PE = 16.2
A lot of insider buying this stock back,,but last friday one of the their shareholder disposed it..
Technical Analysis
MACD below 0
RSI = above 30%
ADX = near weak trend
So i ll wait till it show a uptrend first otherwise i start accumulate...need a good plan to enter...
Thursday, May 6, 2010
TALAM CORPORATION
FA
NET PROFIT: 7.090M
NA P/SHARE: 0.240
EPS: 0.36
PE : 53.87
CURRENT PRICE: 0.145
6/5/2010
MY Q PRICE FOR TODAY : 0.135 X 20,000 0.130 X 20,000
NET PROFIT: 7.090M
NA P/SHARE: 0.240
EPS: 0.36
PE : 53.87
CURRENT PRICE: 0.145
6/5/2010
MY Q PRICE FOR TODAY : 0.135 X 20,000 0.130 X 20,000
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Current Portfolio
As we are in MAY, im already disposed half of my share..maybe this week we can see some correction..and im ready to watch only,,ahahaha..
CURRENT PORTFOLIO:-
MAXIS
BANK OF INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA
CURRENT PORTFOLIO:-
MAXIS
BANK OF INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA
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